It really helps to hear a historical perspective on this. The issue is not a matter of, "let's give them a chance and see how it goes." It's more like, "we know this has gone very badly in the past and the incentives are clear for Meta to sabotage us."
yep. And as an XMPP networks op, I wish we had figured-out the technical measures to avoid it in the meantime. Practically, it boils down to preventing a single actor from consolidating a "greater than X" share of the network, while retaining the desirable aspects like "promoting the better services for the most users".
I have had similar thoughts about breaking monopolies in the Fediverse. Similar to a multi-national alliance, it should be possible to have federation-wide agreement that one instance population cannot grow beyond a certain share of the whole, the consequence being defederation. And I think that would include limiting each admin to a single instance within the federation.
I only fear this rule would be too harsh in practice and penalize the wrong enthusiasts.
Such an alliance could be the achieved organically by listing-out instances passing a certain set of requirements, like: https://providers.xmpp.net/ , and constraining new joiners to route their account creation through it. But several aspects of this consist of undoing major benefits of decentralization/federation. There's no free lunch :)
The author is definitely qualified to speak on XMPP and ActivityPub but one thing I noticed is all protocols and technologies mentioned really had no other alternatives for communication. Users flocked because there was nowhere else to go.
Imagine Lemmy.world was owned by Meta and today decided to federate only with those who paid it.
It is in the power of users to host their content on instances that will not turn on them - which unfortunately means not holding discourse on monitized instances