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It's funny you post this because I literally just ran the numbers on the Senate races here:
https://lemmy.world/post/20162109
tl;dr - Unless the Democrats get on the stick they WILL lose their senate majority.
Right now, it's 50 R and 46 D with the 4 Independents (Sanders, King, Sinema, Manchin) caucusing with the Democrats to give it a 50/50 tie.
Harris, as VP, breaks the tie and gives the Democrats majority power.
BUT -
Manchin, I - WV is not running. His seat will safely go R.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2024/west-virginia/
51 R - 46 D - 3 I. Democrats are out, Republicans are in
Tester, D, in Montana, is well liked, but for some reason he's behind in the polling. It looks like the Democrats will lose Montana too.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2024/montana/
Now we're looking at 52 R - 45 D - 3 I.
Democrats should take Sinema's seat in AZ, but that doesn't change the math as she's I currently.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2024/arizona/
So 52 R - 46 D - 2 I.
Ohio is way, way closer than it should be. Really a toss up at this point.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2024/ohio/
So, at a minimum, in order to maintain a 50/50 tie with a Walz tie breaker majority, the Democrats need to claw back at least 2, maybe 3 seats from the Republicans.
Michael Steel says Florida is possible, polling doesn't look likely:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2024/florida/
Of course, everybody BUT Texas wants Cruz out, again, Texas gonna Texas.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2024/texas/
I'd love for somebody to bounce Hawley out, but that's unlikely.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2024/missouri/
The special election in Nebraska of all places could end up being the surprise:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2024/nebraska/
So here's a scenario:
Put a bunch of money in Montana to hold Tester's seat. Put a bunch of money in Ohio to hold Brown's seat. Give up West Virginia because that's a lost cause. But flip NE from R to I and hope Osborn caucuses with the Democrats.
50 R - 47 D - 3 I (Sanders, King, Osborn) - 50/50 tie with Walz as the tie breaker.
Right now, it's 50 R and 46 D with the 4 Independents (Sanders, King, Sinema, Manchin) caucusing with the Democrats to give it a 50/50 tie.
The Senate is currently 51-49. The Democratic Caucus has 51 members.
There are three things with Tester, one good, two bad.
Bad - the demographic shift in Montana has been accelerating during COVID. Some people "Yellowstone". Basically a shitload of conservatives from liberal states have flocked to Montana and brought the vibe WAY down. There also used to be a concept in Montana of "vote for the most Montana-est candidate" that has historically led to state-wide offices other than President to be pretty competitive. Before the current, absolutely horrible R Governor (Gianforte), we had a two term Dem governor. Tester is another example. That trend has all but disappeared over the last few elections as people with no ties to Montana, but strong ties to conservative politics, have moved to the state.
The other negative is this is a presidential election year, so the Trumpers might be more motivated to vote.
The one boon Tester has going for him right now is that there is an abortion referendum on the ballot. As we've seen in a few other states, having a yes/no option to protect women's reproductive freedom has been bringing out the votes for democrats. Montana is a small state (~1.2 million people) so it doesn't take much to swing a race one way or the other.
It's pretty sad too because Sheehy and Gianforte are basically incredibly unlikeable. Absolutely vile pieces of trash, and they'll probably win anyway.