Nate Silver's model for the 2024 election is out, currently predicts a 65% chance of a Trump victory.
Nate Silver's model for the 2024 election is out, currently predicts a 65% chance of a Trump victory.
www.natesilver.net The presidential election isn't a toss-up
As our model launches, either Biden or Trump could easily win — but the odds are in the ex-president’s favor.
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Is that a 65% chance of a Trump electoral college or popular vote victory? I think last time it predicted that Hillary would win the popular vote. Then she did.
4 1 ReplyIt was not a prediction of victory... it was a 71% chance of winning the electoral college. Said another way, they gave her a 29% chance of losing.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
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