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Anecdotally this statistic is just not right, or the hardships of long covid hits people very differently. Most people I know (hundreds) have had covid several times at this point. I know one person who believes to have long covid in a debilitating way.
I've had long COVID symptons (reduced sense of smell, instantly tired, heart going on a gallop for no or not much reason) for 6 to 7 months after my COVID infection, after which point those symptons suddenly cleared up. At the start I did hospital visits to have my heart checked out and everything, but nothing wrong could be found. I have no trouble believing that some people will never recover.
I’m going on 2+ years at this point. Was in the best shape of my life when I was infected. I haven’t been able to properly exercise ever since (without severe repercussions that last several days). My bloodwork, which was previously fantastic, is all over the place now. Outrageously high cholesterol, iron levels, inflammation markers. It’s hard having hope for the future when I don’t see an end in sight.
I hope that you'll be as fortunate as I was.
I knew something had changed when I was sitting in the living room one Sunday and realized that I could smell the food that I was making in the kitchen oven. I had not had that good a sense of smell since before I had had COVID.
The weekend after that, I did light work in the garden and I could work for hours without issue, while 2 weeks prior I had to stop after half an hour.
I did avoid any strenuous activities as long as I had long COVID, maybe this helped my recovery. I wasn't going to go on a hiking trip or fight with bushes, if I couldn't even do a half hour of light work without fainting. I could still do local walks, thanks to my country being as flat as a pancake.
One very big frustration I had, was the feeling of being perceived as an imposter. I was ill, but tests were unable to show anything wrong, as if it was all in my head. But now there's definite scientific proof that long COVID really is a thing, even when traditional tests show nothing wrong with the patient.
Thanks so much- this give me hope!
Sure, I have no doubt about some people being affected in this way. But the scale that the article is talking about is just absurd, to be honest.
That 10% in the article is people with long COVID, which is not necessarily debilitating. Just having a reduced sense of smell is a symptom of long COVID, but it's not going to stop a runner from running. I tried looking for statistics and I found that in a USA survey, 26% of people with long COVID, reported significant activity limitations. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/72/wr/mm7232a3.htm
It's also all uncharted territory: traditional tests can't identify long covid and there are still breakthroughs being made to figure out what is actually going on with long COVID. It'll be some time before it can actually be tested at scale and even if it can be tested, I doubt that this will be done. As the article suggests, it'll probably be more convenient to try and sweep it under the rug, definitely cheaper.
For now all these statistics are based on external symptoms: people who were diagnosed with COVID (not everyone who had it, was diagnosed), who found that they had long lasting effects (before ending up in statistics, it had to be bad enough for them to seek help) of whom a part has very noticable negative effects (people who did not do much physical activities before, might not even be aware that they can no longer do the physical activities that they didn't used to do), ... So it's error on top of error, a whole lot of unknowns. The percentages in the doomsday article could be accurate, but without the ability of testing, we're not going to find out for a bit longer.
That you personally don't know anyone who has long COVID, does not surprise me. It's such a vague disease that it's not a good talking subject, people just carry on as good as they can. Personally I only communicated my struggle with it to people who were affected by my change in behaviour: I cancelled walking trips and I wanted people to know that it was me, not them. And my garden was a shithole, which was also a me issue.
10% does seem crazy high. But it's also possible that some long covid effects go noticed. Also totally anecdotally, but I heard multiple people say they just don't feel as fit now doing cardio, myself included. Is it we're just older or did we get slight lung damage? Or worse, heart damage. Our bodies are really surprisingly sturdy and able to keep up with damage for a long time.
I know 2 people with severe complications from long covid. And I don't know that many people. So how many around me are living with mild long covid complications and don't realize it?
This is why anecdotes are not informative when trying to understand statistics. You almost certainly don't have a close relationship with hundreds of people that would involve informing you of lingering COVID symptoms nor do you have a random sampling of acquaintances (age, ethnicity, and vaccination status affect how common it is).
https://www.webmd.com/covid/news/20230526/one-in-ten-people-omicron-long-covid
I mean, fair, but also: if the implication is that vaccination is the key to reducing covid symptoms - no shit? Also, the article you link mentions 10 percent rate of omicron cases leading to long covid (not mentioning how vaccination rates play into it), so...
Assuming I have a 100 close ties (I have significantly more), and just one of these exhibiting publicly that they have long covid seems highly unlikely. According to the below link, 60% of the US population has caught omicron. The probability of only one of my sixty close ties having long covid is ~1.2%. So...
https://www.statnews.com/2022/04/26/with-omicron-nearly-60-percent-in-us-infected-covid/
The correct response to being reminded that anecdotes aren't data isn't trying to do more math on your anecdata.
Actual studies measure these rates. Your limited knowledge of your extended acquaintance group means jack shit for whether they're correct. I only know of a single person in my extended acquaintances who had heart disease. It doesn't mean that general population statistics on heart disease are wrong, it means some combination of I'm missing information and my sample is biased. Your sample is not random (so multiplying a statistic of the general population against them is not valid) and you don't actually know who's experienced long COVID symptoms. Some may have had some and gotten better, some may not even recognize a lingering cough or being more worn out as a symptom, and some may just not feel like it's necessary to tell you.
Absolutely. Always consider medical statistics based on self reporting with a grain of salt is all I'm saying. Obviously, my back of a napkin maths based on my personal circumstances shouldn't be used as any kind of evidence on your behalf. This is also why I say it's based on my own anecdotes.
The people who have experienced long-term effects are extremely vocal online but it's hard to imagine that it is as common as 1 in 10 given how many people have had covid.
I am extremely curious to see if they find a genotype or something which is an indicator for people being vulnerable to long-covid. It's possible that it will end up being a similar situation for ME/CFS where we have no specific biological markers which differentiate people who suffer from it (aside from the symptoms).
We have scientific studies so you don't need to just go with whatever you imagine reality is. Long COVID isn't necessarily a life altering debilitation, it's symptoms lasting 3 or more months. Often they clear up, but sometimes they don't.
I was thinking about a particular study which identifies why some people seem to get long term effects and others don't. To my knowledge - and from a quick search - that doesn't seem to exist.
The people who have experienced long-term effects are extremely vocal online but it’s hard to imagine that it is as common as 1 in 10 given how many people have had covid.
I was responding to this.
With regards to that I'd be interested in a meta-analysis similar to this one which manages to account for symptomless, or mild symptom, cases somehow.
The only person I know who got long covid was unvaccinated, not sure if that affects the likelihood in any way of it sticking around.
I had it twice, and the first time it was a fairly simple thing that went over quickly and the second was a really bad flu-like deal. Though my A/C was out in summertime so it could have just been because of the 90 degree heat in my house or something, idk.