How Popular Does Biden Need to Be to Beat Trump? Not Very.
How Popular Does Biden Need to Be to Beat Trump? Not Very.
Presiding over an unhappy nation makes reelection hard for any president. But running against Trump makes it easier for Biden.
Given the current state of partisan polarization, it’s unlikely Biden can get majority job approval next year even with the most fortunate set of circumstances. But the good news for him is that he probably doesn’t have to. Job-approval ratings are crucial indicators in a normal presidential reelection cycle that is basically a referendum on the incumbent’s record. Assuming Trump is the Republican nominee, 2024 will not be a normal reelection cycle for three reasons.
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I mean I'd really like to hear your reasoning behind your thinking, so that's a reason but if you don't feel like it then sure, probably better to end it here.
I mean I’d really like to hear your reasoning behind your thinking
You have already. You responded by lying and saying that centrists never espoused the "no matter who" rhetoric. Since all you're going to do is lie and gaslight, you can find someone else to do that to.
I'm really bewildered with the logic behind your thinking. By "centrists" do you mean the right-wing of Democrats, the middle ground between parties and the left-wing of Republicans (the political central position as it is in the US) or something else? I could believe the ones solidly in the middle of their own party could be diehards, but saying that especially people who are switching parties are also diehards makes no sense. You'd expect that from those who are committed to one party, not those who are undecided or uncommitted.
I feel like there's some major miscommunication somewhere. I wish you'd calm down and we could just go through what we mean so we could figure out this situation.
For clarification, I drew a magnificent pic (well, only the circle). The ones I'm talking about are within the green circle. Are you talking about some other group?
Fine. I'll pretend for one more comment that you're not arguing in bad faith.
The people I'm talking about are the Democratic Party's centrist contingent. The ones who shriek "vote blue no matter who" when they're ordering everyone to their left to vote for the candidate they wanted from the start, but shriek "party unity my ass" even louder when anyone to the left of their very first choice gets nominated.
In 2008, the party's centrists literally formed a pac to fundraise for McCain/Palin because they couldn't stand the idea of anyone other than Clinton being the nominee. Then 2016, when they blamed everyone who said anything even remotely negative about Clinton for the loss she earned, regardless of how they voted. Then 2020, the year of "no matter who" from the same wing of the party who worked so hard to legitimize Sarah Goddamned Palin.
If centrists don't get their way about everything at all times, they directly work to elect Republicans. And then scream at everyone to their left for daring to breathe a word of criticism. It's disgusting hypocrisy.
Now pretend that you still don't know who I'm talking about and lie to me some more.
Fine. I’ll pretend for one more comment that you’re not arguing in bad faith.
Jesus, aren't you a nice person to chat with.
The people I’m talking about are the Democratic Party’s centrist contingent.
Using that pic again, are you talking about the ones I highlighted here or thereabouts?
Because then you've misunderstood, I'm talking about these people
They're not the same group. The original context was people who are in the middle of the political spectrum in the US
"Not like expecting them to fall in line would’ve done anything if you’re losing a hefty chunk of the moderates. That’s what seems to decide American elections, who can claw more of the middle ground undecided voters to their side."
Now pretend that you still don’t know who I’m talking about and lie to me some more.
No I think I understand what happened here. You thought I meant Democratic party middle ground, even though I meant the whole political field in the US. Democratic party middle ground wouldn't be likely to jump ship, yeah. I'd imagine they'd be the ones happiest with the party.
You misunderstood and got mad at me lol.
Democratic party middle ground wouldn’t be likely to jump ship, yeah.
They did in 2008.
You misunderstood and got mad at me lol.
You mischaracterized what I was saying and never stopped gaslighting.
Democratic party middle ground wouldn’t be likely to jump ship, yeah.
They did in 2008.
What do you mean? 2008 United States presidential election? Didn't Obama have a hefty win in that?
From that photo, to me, it looks like they solidly got their own party behind them and plenty of the independents (which, like I said, I feel is one important aspect in winning).
You mischaracterized what I was saying and never stopped gaslighting.
I was talking about how in elections in the US, it's important to win the middle ground and undecided voters. You started talking about how that means "vote blue no matter who" were hypocrites, even though we were thinking of two different groups. Misunderstanding, those happen, it's not a huge deal. It's not gaslighting to resolve a misunderstanding lol.
What do you mean? 2008 United States presidential election? Didn’t Obama have a hefty win in that?
I addressed this already. Clinton supporters literally formed a pac to fundraise for McCain/Palin when they didn't get their first choice in the primaries. I'm glad they failed, but their failure isn't from lack of trying.
Misunderstanding, those happen, it’s not a huge deal. It’s not gaslighting to resolve a misunderstanding lol.
It wasn't a misunderstanding. You repeatedly pretended I was talking about a group that I made perfectly clear I wasn't talking about, and now you're doing the same thing about the Clinton supporters who jumped ship in 2008.
This conversation has reached its conclusion. Go gaslight someone else.
I addressed this already. Clinton supporters literally formed a pac to fundraise for McCain/Palin when they didn't get their first choice in the primaries. I'm glad they failed, but their failure isn't from lack of trying.
Pretty interesting. There's even a Wiki article I didn't find before https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_and_liberal_support_for_John_McCain_in_2008
Not like expecting them to fall in line would’ve done anything if you’re losing a hefty chunk of the moderates.
So “vote blue no matter who” was a crock of fucking bullshit put forth by hypocrites who never intend to follow their own advice if a candidate isn’t their very first choice.
I think this was the misunderstanding. We were talking about two different groups here. Unless it was purposeful on your part. But either way, it was very confusing.
This conversation has reached its conclusion. Go gaslight someone else.
You really like that term. That and "grifter" have had such an inflation.