What's your prediction for the 2024 US election?
What's your prediction for the 2024 US election?
Who's winning POTUS? Will it be called on election night or drawn out? Congress? Etc
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The current betting odds aggregations have trump at 58%, harris at 41%
https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president
8 0 ReplyWell that's disheartening. Can't believe that many people prefer a racist con man to a competent woman.
10 1 ReplyA 34 time convicted felon child rapist pussy grabber racist con man
6 1 ReplyYou could keep adding to that.
People are big mad and think electing a brain-damaged version of Mussolini makes some kind of point.
2 0 Reply
Betting markets don't really have any predictive value. It's all vibes.
6 1 ReplyI wouldn't rely on them for predictions, but I do think they can be a reasonable proxy for people's beliefs and/or assumptions. And I would say they at least loosely track the truth..
NBA betting is not perfectly predictive, but there's a reason the Celtics are at the top and the Pistons are at the bottom.
1 0 Reply
Wikipedia lists Real Clear Politics as having become more conservative and right leaning in recent years. Their polls may not be as accurate.
5 1 ReplyThat's not a poll. It's an aggregate / average of betting markets.
7 0 Reply