I work in the risk assessment space, so they are kind of critical to be aware of, for me :)
Adding my own explanation, because I think it clicks better for me (especially when I write it down):
- Pick a door. You have a 66% chance of picking a wrong door, and a 33% of picking the right door.
- Monty excludes a door with 100% certainty
- IF you picked a wrong door, then there's a 100% chance the remaining door is correct (so the contingent probability is
p(switch|picked wrong) = 100%)
, so the total chance of the remaining door being correct isp(switch|picked wrong)* p(picked wrong) = 66%
. - IF you picked the right door, then Monty's reveal gives you no new information, because both the other doors were wrong, so
p(switch|picked right) = 50%
, which means thatp(switch|picked right) * p(picked right) = 50% * 33% = 17%
. p(don't switch|picked wrong) * p(picked wrong) = 50% * 66% = 33%
(because of the remaining doors including the one you picked, you have no more information)p(don't switch|picked right) * p(picked right) = 50% * 33% = 17%
(because both of the unpicked doors are wrong, Monty didn't give you more information)
So there's a strong benefit of switching (66% to 33%) if you picked wrong, and even odds of switching if you picked right (17% in both cases).
Please feel free to correct me if I'm wrong here.
Seven people believe that shame is an effective tool of social change, I guess?
I think if you abstract it from the vegan discussion and think of it more just as how passionate progressives of any stripe treat each other, it's still pretty real. I mean, it's usually only a small fraction of us, but damn those guys can be loud.
Is jizz vegan?
I think it's basically the same with internet everything? Especially in social media spaces with algorithms that incentivise combative responses..
I do find that it's less bad on the fediverse (Lemmy, Mastodon) than on the mainstream equivalents. It's still present, but it gets called out and downvoted more, I think. Hopefully it stays that way.
How are you gonna build an equal and fair society when learning how to bridge the gaps to the huge sections of population that don't share your ideology is too hard?
Dunno why you got downvoted. expressing a personal reaction and asking a question should be fine..
TVP is pretty good as a mince alternative for bolognese. You can also use it in hearty stews - like a mushroom and TVP stew with mashed potatos.
Caveat is that cooking with meat is a lot easier, you need to be more thoughtful with spices and stock and salt and getting the balance right when cooking without it. There are vegetarian chicken and beef stocks that are great for stews.
Thanks for the help, it was easier this time 😅
Yep. Already true to a large extent. But it doesn't take a majority of the world to make the fediverse work. We just need enough for it to become broadly attractive to a critical mass of people. It's big enough to self-sustain now, so I think it's just a matter of time until it hits that point.
It's extremely useful, because it's an index to all the known things that might be useful in a given situation. The point is not to assess all of them, the point is to not miss ones you're unfamiliar with that may be important in your situation.
... seem to largely understand that we’re at the theoretical limit of “line goes up”.
I'm skeptical of this. I think they are disconnected from a few fairly fundamental realities. Do you have any links that might convince me otherwise?
The rest of it I agree with, but I don't know if that's relevant for their interpretation of market crashes, because I think they see them as internally driven.. I might be wrong here though.
Good take. Bluesky is a good stop-gap.
I've also been thinking, if Bluesky never federates and enshittifies in a similar way to Twitter (which it will do much faster, just cause it's a different era), then the Bluesky exodus will really have a solid reason to try to understand why decentralisation is so important...
Bluesky has the network effect, at least for some domains of content. Mastodon has about 50% coverage of my domain of interests, but that's probably way less for many people.
Mastodon has the guaranteed lack of enshittification via decentralisation. Bluesky is promising it, but it seems far from guaranteed, and if it doesn't happen, I'm betting it'll enshittify about 4 times faster than twitter, because everything does these days..
So Bluesky is probably a better bet in the short term for general users.. I'm glad people are escaping twitter at least. But I'm sticking with Mastodon, 'cause fuck going through all that again in a couple of years.
Then a rapid decent into profit maximisation at the expense of user experience.
Whilst victory in chess comes from deploying one’s power better, dominating the centre of the board and exchanging weaker pieces for stronger ones, victory in weiqi comes from cultivating superior potential by connecting one’s stones to make the whole more than the sum of its parts.
This article is ridiculously up my alley. I'm only an amateur Go player, but I've always found that it's really easy to draw useful life lessons from it, like the importance of failing as a stepping stone to improving, and the balance between practice and theory.
This is the first time I've seen someone draw some clear underlying philosophy out of it though, and it's really useful for my current work (on risk assessment/management).
There are alternatives that would have a similar effect, without the scary price tag. A negative income tax is an example: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negative_income_tax
Probably a bigger point is that you can't beat fascism with an individualistic approach to resistance.
I don't think that that's the only reasonable intpretation you can draw from anthropology and archaeology.
If you want a good example of an alternative interpretation, I'd recommend reading Wengrow and Graeber's boom The Dawn Of Everything.
naught101 - MANYANA
Made some EDM today. Bit wack, but fun. All done on the dirtywave m8, samples self-recorded.
https://weeklybeats.com/naught101/music/manyana
Is it possible to be comfortable with two desktop OSs (e.g. shortcuts, mouse)
I've been a linux user for 20 years (mostly on KDE). I just started at a new job, and they gave me a mac. I found out later that I could have got a linux machine instead, which is a bit annoying. Still, I know there are some nice things about a mac, and I figured I'd give it a try for a while.
I'm pretty quick moving around my desktop environment, and I'm finding picking up the mac is not too bad. BUT I use keyboard shortcuts a lot, and they are all every different on a mac. So whenever I switch back and forth between my work machine, I end up stumbling a bunch and wasting my time, and getting annoyed. It's mostly keyboard shortcuts, but the trackpad buttons and scrolling are annoying too.
So, question is: is it possible to regularly use two OSs with wildly different control surfaces, and be comfortable with it? e.g. either MacOS + Linux, or I guess MacOS + Windows? Or will it be annoying forever?
When reading (or listening), what kind of imagery hits you the hardest?
When you're reading or listening to verbal material ( e.g. fiction, nonfiction, prose, poetry, lyrics, etc.), what kind of imagery has the most impact?
Imagery in the broad sense (including all senses, not just sight).
"Kind" can be whatever categorisation you can think of, e.g. genre, sense, place, scale, human/non-human, etc.