Don't overstate 1.5 degrees C threat, new IPCC head says
Don't overstate 1.5 degrees C threat, new IPCC head says
Jim Skea, the new head of the UN's IPCC climate panel, said it was not helpful to imply that temperature increases of 1.5 degrees Celsius posed an existential threat to humanity.
In short, we aren't on track to an apocalyptic extinction, and the new head is concerned that rhetoric that we are is making people apathetic and paralyzes them from making beneficial actions.
He makes it clear too that this doesn't mean things are perfectly fine. The world is becoming and will be more dangerous with respect to climate. We're going to still have serious problems to deal with. The problems just aren't insurmountable and extinction level.
Well by all means, let's make it seem less serious than it is! That'll get people moving
Signed, an actual fucking climate scientist
Literally "This is fine."
Ignore the triple digit temps in the ocean, that's not apocalyptic! Relax!
So what if a few people died of heat exhaustion just by... Walking outside for a few minutes. Normal. Not apocalyptic.
So what if regular rains are delivering hurricane levels of flooding. That's just nature doing it's thing, dude. Quit overreacting.
Malaria is in NJ, but like, mosquitos fly so that was probably bound to happen.
And really, like, 110 isnt that hot, especially if it's not humid.
Relax.
He's technically right, though; climate change isn't going to drive us to extinction. Yes, it's going to cause the total collapse of modern society in our lifetimes and more death and sufferring than any other event in recorded history, but there will almost certainly be tens or hundreds of millions of survivors. Maybe even billions.
Yes, technically it's not really about the planet or the environment, or society. It is about finding a solution of an optimum between money spent and living conditions for the majority of people. I actually think we should start talking about it more from that angle.
We could go to almost zero emissions tomorrow but it would wreak absolute havoc and billions of people would die. We could go full zero carbon emissions in our energy grid, but it would cost an absolute shitton, which means the living conditions go down. More realistic is a mix of investments between avoidance and adaptation. And I don't think there is any realistic chance without nuclear energy.
I think he is just saying people shouldn't doom post. I think there is a fine line because a lot of zoomers i interact with are hopeless and have given up. This is a generation who never experienced a functional (American) government who worked for the people. So they just don't care and you can see it reflected in their memes.
I don't know the rhetorical path we should take. We need to get people motivated and fired up but not apathetic and despairing. I mostly want to see politicians crumble and the rich eaten and i think that's messaging many will get behind.
It's not even that Gen Z doesn't care. Many of us just hit a point where everything feels numb. You can only get so upset/depressed/etc until your brain just kind of shuts down a bit.
There's grief over everything that we'll probably never get to see/have. There's grief over the backsliding of progress that actually seemed real to us at one point. There's grief over the many people who just die, everywhere, for terrible and avoidable reasons. There are many animals we will already never get to see.
Everywhere you look, people almost seem to feel pride in not knowing things. One member of Gen Z managed to have her voice heard about the planet, and she was ridiculed by grown adults. Multiple governments are now trying to decrease education, and some people somehow see that as a good thing. Wildfires are blazing like never before, the smoke is totally hazing new areas, yet people still refuse to see. Why is Gen Z expected to be the magical cure to global warming? People won't even listen to Greta! We're just as human as any other generation. Of course we'll try, but the focus on solving the climate problem should have already been happening generations ago. Just THINK of all the progress we could have already made!
Lucky us, huh? We're also regularly encouraged to shove all of these emotions down because we could not possibly have similar problems to older adults. Fuck that, respectfully.
Yeah, I've got to say, sometimes it's damn hard to have any hope.
I do think more of us need to vote, even if it only feels like there's a 3% chance that something actually changes for the better...
Never experienced a warm summer day nor a windshield full of dead bugs.
Did you even read the article, Mr/Ms climate scientist?
He’s asking people not to talk like the world is going to catastrophically end once we hit that 1.5 degrees milestone, because it’s making people feel hopeless and apathetic, which is actually slowing our efforts to change.
And he’s totally right. If the government told people a meteor the size of Texas was going to impact earth in 12 hours, there would be effectively zero effort to stop it. If you tune in to a lot of the conversation around climate change from people who are not climate scientists, but who want to leave a better world for their kids and believe climate scientists, they feel hopeless. It feels like a foregone conclusion that we are going to go over the 1.5 degree goal (probably because it is), and if we think the biosphere is going to collapse when it does, it is really, really hard to take action.
It’s not saying to undersell the risks, he’s saying to be truthful about the risks. We can definitely still salvage complex life on earth with optimistic, consistent effort, but recent media coverage has been giving the impression that it’s too late. This is bad and counterproductive.
Keep on fighting the good fight brother/sister.
I hope, greatly, for the future. But know that any real change will have to include everyone, everywhere. Even the chuds that drive jacked up pickups covered in skulls and toting firearms. And they will never change willingly. The oil industry will continue to sow doubt and enable these idiots with cheaply available petrol, so it's not likely we'll even be able to get serious mpg regulations, much less a renewable transportation network. When florida's coast is under water, maybe that'll change a few minds... but I'm sure they'll turn it into some kind of conspiracy to persecute them even then.
Really hope I'm wrong tho.
because it’s making people feel hopeless and apathetic, which is actually slowing our efforts to change.
That's the thing I don't get. How to come to such a conclusion?
If you ever have been on a sinking ship, you know how suddenly even the worst enemies will cooperate willingly quite well in face of time pressure and a life threat. Some might even be willing to sacrifice themselves when in such a situation, even a few minutes gained can make a huge difference. But aswell if the situation seems hopeless.
It's totally atypical for most humans to just accept fate and relax in any life threatening situation. Humans tend to die fighting/ defending.
Yes but my point is that the world is already burning... People are dying... Homes are sinking into the ocean... Countless species are being lost. Pray tell, when is it bad enough that it is no longer sensationalistic?
Oh, if only people were as passionate about abortion. I mean, they're not killing that many babies, right? Why the fuss?
Edit: also, 1.5 C is catastrophic. Millions will move or die. Refugees will be pouring out of countries in numbers like we've never seen. Food production won't keep up with demands. Entire ecosystems like corals will be decimated and survive in only tiny pockets. Stop me if I'm being too hyperbolic and making anyone feel paralyzed with inaction though. Better we gently sweep it under the rug as we have done since the 1970s, because then it's not a problem!
I understand his sentiment. I have an overwhelming feeling of powerlessness because most CO2 emissions aren't even made by normal every day people but the entities that do create a majority of it don't care. This means anything we attempt to do is as a whole is only a drop in the bucket compared to what these entities are producing. I purchased a hybrid vehicle to curve my driving emissions and I recycle. I planted grass and a tree in my yard to prevent run off and produce oxygen. I am looking into getting solar power for my home but I am not a rich man so the price is a little beyond me right now. Things I can do I try to do but in the end regardless of what I do entities are polluting our water and air, producing plastics, and are trying to place the blame on normal people. It can be a little heavy on the soul.
Honestly I think we should stop trying to stop climate change and start adapting to it.
Because at individual scale all actions to limit climate change are almost meaningless, whatever we do we will not see the consequences of it. On the other hand we can adapt to climate change at individual and community level.
Start planting trees in our community, build a way of life that does not require fossil fuel since we are running out of them, installing solar panels and improving home insulation to help during externe weather events, buy less products and focus on repairing them instead ...
All of that can directly improve our life, present and future, without relying on everyone doing their share
AND, as a side effect, all the action we do to prepare yourself to live in a post growth world are also great to reduce our CO2 emissions.
Hang in there. It will eventually get so bad it will mandate action. Humanity is resilient. But I do feel for the many people who have died and will die, or be left homeless, or without a country to call home on the way there...
Also, put pressure on your elected officials, vote in every election, encourage your friends and peers to vote. Run for local office where a lot of decisions are made that can help
I already feel helpless. I try to use my vehicle less and use public transport. I just moved somewhere walkable so there are days that I don't use my vehicle (will be weeks eventually when I get used to it). I try to buy local and reduce my waste.
I live in a southern state though so my vote doesn't do shit. Even if I did, this feels like a political issue at this point and neither the right or the left of the country has the will to "do what needs to be done".
Capitalism is exploitative by its nature and the market will never solve the problem until we have extracted all the fossil fuels in the earth.
I know it is not your problem, but how can we NOT feel helpless?
I think the issue here is who you're looking at for the audience. At this point, we can agree that anyone who doesn't think there's a problem is delusional, and it's a waste to time to convince them otherwise.
If we assume the audience is all people who believe this is an issue, then this message makes sense. It's trying to convince people that they should still care and not be nihilistic about it.
God that must be depressing work.
I think climate change is a big fucking problem, full stop.
That being said, do you know how much of a relief it is to read "we're not going to turn into Mars, just keep trying to fix the problem we got this humanity"? I legitimately have had existential dread due to the messaging around climate change. At least now I can continue trying to do my best to fix it without asking "what's the fucking point?"
Exactly. It's not like this is an existential threat to human civilisation and the current ecosystem of the planet... oh wait, that's exactly what it bloody is!
The reason for all the apathetic people is because they see the writing on the wall. It's not too late now, but by the time the assholes up top actually pull their heads out, it will be.
Title rage baited?
What’s weird is you claim to be a scientist yet don’t understand fundamental social science.
Any scientist worth their weight has a basic understanding and any effective scientist understands how to use the field to their advantage. He is not wrong at all.
LOL WUT
So first off, climate science is data driven. Social politics should play no part in how to interpret the result that shit is getting hotter and people are dying... That's pure statistics baby
But in terms of communication, sure, understanding psychology helps. But look where a poor understanding of social psychology got us...
And social science is not the same as psychology. Social science means integrating diverse perspectives into environmental decision making. Which many in this thread are failing to do
What really got me worried was a warning ( warning collapse per 2025) about a projected collapse of the Atlantic Gulfstream.:
"The Gulf Stream system could collapse as soon as 2025, a new study suggests. The shutting down of the vital ocean currents, called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (Amoc) by scientists, would bring catastrophic climate impacts."
That would be very bad news for Europe and The Atlantic and other sea currents in general.
No. It wouldn't. Yes, it would get colder in Europe, but there are lots of ways and means to deal with that. Heck, European homes generally are optimized for the cold and not the heat - which is where a lot of the issues and deaths regarding heat stroke come from. Also, European homes are not getting blown away by some heavy gusts.
Florida will get the most shit and probably will cease to exist. Though, one could argue that that's not such a bad thing...
And the Gulf stream has stopped a few times in earth history, it isn't the only current.
Stop fear mongering, FFS, and do things differently. Yes, it will get uncomfortable for a lot of people and we have to ask ourself as a society if we deal with it properly - or not and face the consequences, but even 2°C won't collaps humanity at once. It all depends what we do with the cards we are going to get dealt.
No youre not
Lol, what do you disagree about? Is a 1.5°C rise apocalyptic?
There are quite a few hypothetical tipping points where the climate can go catastrophically wrong. We don’t understand them as well as climate change, can’t as easily predict how likely they are or when they’re inevitable, but we’d like to avoid them.
The 1.5°C target is where we expect significant disruptions to society, expensive impact, hardship for the most vulnerable. But we can deal with it if it stops there. However as we shoot past that target, those disruptions get bigger and more expensive but also those tipping points become more likely. I really really hope we can avoid them
While I understand the intention here is to reassure people that not all is lost and there's still time for action, a take like this is going to be paraphrased into "climate change is overblown and isn't something to worry about" by Big Oil and other major polluters.
I have not seen a single piece of evidence that we're going to do anything about climate change unless we come up with some magical solution that somehow: doesn't upset the status quo and also makes existing rich people even more rich.
Wow, what a ridiculous straw man.
I haven't heard anyone referring to 1.5 C as apocalyptic. I HAVE heard it described in terms of being a threshold at which climate scientists predicted a certain set of consequences.
What's apocalyptic about the situation is our acceleration towards even greater climate change, and world governments' unwillingness to take the situation seriously.
In the US, for example, Biden passed the greatest climate mitigation law of all time ... and it's grossly inadequate. They're treating it much the same way that the Obama administration treated health care. They patted themselves on the back for passing the ACA, which still left the country in a health care CRISIS, because it was a half measure.
In many ways the absolute worst way you can respond to a crisis is with these types of half measures. Why? Because it acts as a pressure valve, removing all the momentum for real, meaningful change.
Much like the ACA, Democrats will pretend that this is a stepping stone for the next set of reforms... But we only need to look at the ACA to see how flawed that reasoning is. We have not built on the ACA. We have spent a decade watching Republicans chip away at it.
Now we're playing the same game with climate change mitigation. And the price will be hundreds of millions of climate change refugees, war, and famine.
To be 100 percent clear: while the Democrats are incompetent here, the real villains are the Republicans, who are WILLFULLY ignorant of the science, and are the ones forcing either impotent compromise or no mitigation at all.
4° C is apocalyptic. 1.5° C is still catastrophic and will result in massive floods and global famines.
But that line of thinking will let some people believe we’re good until we hit that 4° mark. I have no idea how likely some of the tipping points are (AMOC collapse, West Antarctic glacier loss, permafrost melt and methane release) but they sound apocalyptic and much more likely as we increase climate change
I haven't heard anyone referring to 1.5 C as apocalyptic.
Hear hear!
It’s not straw man, you just reenforced his point, good job.
It’s fundamental social science.
Hey jackass, people aren't apathetic because they believe it's too late to do anything. People are apathetic because people like you haven't done anything and now it's too late. The "beneficial actions" you are calling for are half measures that won't help at all, and the people who care are already doing what they can while the real polluters, the real destroyers of humanity, are building bunkers and hoarding gold to survive the coming storm.
Yeah, any solution to climate change that relies on people of good faith coming together across national boundaries to solve our global problems is a bunch of pie-in-the-sky horseshit and most definitely not something to pin the future of humanity on.
The only thing that's actually going to reduce greenhouse emissions is cost savings; focus on that, build your models around what we can convince people to do with that, then figure out how to save as much of the human race and the natural world as possible in a scenario where we do fuck-all about climate change except when by doing so it makes some rich asshole slightly richer.
What are people of good faith going to do about even a small fraction of those who disagree?
This is where the Porsche fuels come into play beautifully. They capture carbon from the atmosphere to be the carbon in the fuel therefore once run through an engine the emissions are a net zero. And they can run in regular gasoline engines, and is shown to be roughly the same cost of production as current gasoline.
Once the cheap/free labor runs out then socialist programs can flourish because they will have too.
People aren't apathetic because "it's too late", it's because right now is the time humanity needs to act, yet all that's really happened is governments making promises to act in 10, 15, 20 years time if at all.
Oh, but there are pollution targets... that are routinely unmet, or are met through dodgy use of carbon credits, all with no punishment.
If governments committed to the necessary action now to start bringing CO2 down then peoples attitude would change. It would then all be about the consequences of the speed of that transition and where we would likely end up. As is that CO2 graph just keeps going up at an increasing rate tracking the 8.5C rise by 2100 as defined in RCP8 in 2005! We have every right to be concerned about that trajectory, it will be devastating.
The problem so far is that while new energy is coming mostly from green power its not replacing the old power its just getting used. We aren't yet at the stage where peak CO2 production looks remotely likely soon and passing the Paris agreement 25 years early is a mighty big sign we are in deep trouble.
Don’t lose hope, we could be just about there
oh look people in the comments who are missing the fucking point. I'm honestly so sick of this shit. You either have rainbows and unicorns and "we'll just figure it out"/climate deniers to "WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE AAAAAAAHHHHHHHHH" apathetic fucks who won't do shit* because "what's the point we are all doomed anyway" which...causes the same problem as denying does.
honestly i've delt with more people who refuse to change anything because "what's the point" than I deal with outright deniers anymore.
*not sure if anyone in the comments is an apathetic "do nothing though tbf and honest. So there is my disclaimer don't @ me.
I see this all the time on social media, and it's frustrating. I don't want to dampen anyone's passion for combating climate change (because I agree!), but it's like a feedback loop for rhetoric that gets more and more extreme.
Something that starts out as:
"There was a wildfire in _____. This could be part of a larger trend related to climate change."
Turns into:
"This fire was caused directly by climate change."
Turns into:
"The world is on fire! Take shelter!"
Turns into:
"Don't plan for the future. Don't have children. Move somewhere cold and start prepping for the apocalypse."
You can literally watch this same process happen with every issue that gets traction on social media or cable news. Then one side looks at the most extreme comments from the other side and easily dismisses the whole thing.
Ok, sure. Please tell me what I can do that will actually make a difference other than having it be a major influence in the way I vote?
This is a problem that only governments can solve and voting is the only way average people can hope to really influence them.
One person recycling or driving an EV makes no difference to the entire planet.
Didn't you answer your own question? You can advocate, you can organize, you can lobby. By pretending these things don't give you power, you strip away your own power.
The point is to sway the government's actions through public opinion. One can argue how effective these tactics are, but doing absolutely nothing will surely accomplish absolutely nothing.
Oh don't worry, voting to me is something that you do and then get back to the real work. You need to organize with people around you and fight everything and anything in your area. If it feels like you can't do that in your area, then if you can, try moving to an area you think you might be able to find your community. (it doesn't have to be far, it can literally be a town over, or even down the street). No one can fight climate change alone. It will take many people working together to make the change we need to see. Also you may be able to radicalize people in your area for even more direct action. Get people to feed into their anger, and channel it at the people in charge who refuse to change anything.
This can start out as small issues but you can wake people up that they DO have power. If we build up a coalition of power from the ground up, it will get easier and faster to do. Many hands make light work and all that, and eventually people will be willing to make people in power fear them again. Cause i'm going to be honest with you, I believe power corrupts absolutely, so anyone in power is so removed from the rest of our realities, that I do not think you can reason with most of them. The only thing you can do against power, is make it fear you. Ironically to all the "just vote UwU" people, voting means nothing if there is no consequences for going against the will of the people. Which we see time and time again. I have finally been able to be more active as of late, despite my disabilities and it gives me a way forward that I wouldn't of had otherwise.
oh, even more things you can do. While I can go on and on about the complications of social media and the internet at large, and while direct action in person is the most effective, there are things you can do if you just can't work in person for a variety of reasons. Before I got my boots on the ground, I was able to help out with community work with social media management. With the internet and our ability to connect long distances, you have options from home in regards to helping build community, and if you do this it may give you connections to help you get out of your situation so that you can be more physically involved in the future.
I know this is a lot, but there is just not a quick easy answer to "what should I do?" Our individualism has warped our reality to how things work, and trust me I battle with it every day too. There is no big savior coming to help us, and there isn't some big magic fix. It will take a lot of tiny things that will build up to big changes. That's how it has always worked, but it's easier to conceptualize when we break it down into big chunks for history. Let alone the hegemony of the Great Man Theory of history
It's hard to tell you what YOU can do, because I don't know you. What CAN you do? Use the skills you have to help out a group or org in your area, if there isn't one, then try making one if that is something you can do, or help online. Our changing climate talked about dual vision when dealing with climate change. It's the idea of looking at what is possible in both a good and bad way and trying to walk that line. I don't know if my organizing and work will make a difference, but all I can do is my best and constantly work for something better. The people in power have taken much from all of us, I refuse to let them take my one life without a fight, and without me finding happiness in the dark times. We don't get to choose the times we live in, but we can help fight and build something better so those in the future will have something better. That's just how I live and it's what works for me.
This is a trying time, and sorry I did not mean for this to turn into a novel. Like i said it's hard to answer the question "what do I do?" simply without coming off as uncaring or hand-wavy. TL;DR shit fucking sucks
I wish you luck in your journey and as much peace as anyone of us can have with our climate anxiety.
TL:DR kinda defeats the purpose but, Shit fucking sucks, and it's hard. But we gotta try, organizing and direct action to the point of making those in power fear us is our best option.
honestly i've delt with more people who refuse to change anything because "what's the point" than I deal with outright deniers anymore.
But most of the people who express that opinion aren't saying it because they think that climate change is unstoppable.
They are saying it because the changes that we know can help fight climate change, that we've known about for years, that international leaders can implement, aren't being done.
And this statement, from someone with a lot influence on global carbon emissions than the average person, seems very out of touch. He is telling off the people whose house is burning down, while ignoring the arsonists.
actually, a lot of them do think climate change is unstoppable in some way shape and form, I know cause i get told that almost every day. There are people doing it in these comments right now.
Also, I read the article, he is not ignoring the issue here, and honestly, i think this is directed at the leaders too. Who do you think is spreading this gloom and doom in the first place? Who benefits from people giving up and we just live in a worst world when there is much we can do to fight? The fossil fuel-backed "leadership".
There are plenty of ways to fight, you just can't do it alone. No one can fight climate change alone. Our individualism has warped our brains so that we cannot even fathom what to do at first when we ourselves cannot fix a problem by ourselves. Another outcome of hegemony and our corrupt society.
only through building community and threatening the power structure can we effectively fight for real change. "leadership" (aka people with power who are all corrupt to a certain extent) will do nothing if they do not have a legitimate fear of the people, and that will not come without community building and throwing off the shackles of individualism.
- That didn't happen.
- And if it did, it wasn't that bad.
- And if it was, that's not a big deal. <- WE ARE HERE
- And if it is, that's not my fault.
- And if it was, I didn't mean it.
- And if I did, you deserved it.
Speaking to weekly magazine Der Spiegel, in an interview first published on Saturday, Skea warned against laying too much value on the international community's current nominal target of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius compared the pre-industrial era.
"We should not despair and fall into a state of shock" if global temperatures were to increase by this amount, he said.
In a separate discussion with German news agency DPA, Skea expanded on why.
"If you constantly communicate the message that we are all doomed to extinction, then that paralyzes people and prevents them from taking the necessary steps to get a grip on climate change," he said.
"The world won't end if it warms by more than 1.5 degrees," Skea told Der Spiegel. "It will however be a more dangerous world."
Surpassing that mark would lead to many problems and social tensions, he said, but still that would not constitute an existential threat to humanity.
(...)
Skea predicted that one difficult area might prove to be changing people's lifestyles. He said that no scientist could tell people how to live or what to eat.
"Individual abstinence is good, but it alone will not bring about the change to the extent it will be necessary," Skea said. "If we are to live more climate consciously, we need entirely new infrastructure. People will not get on bikes if there are no cycle paths."
Skea said he also wanted to adapt the IPCC so that it could provide better and more targeted advice to specific groups of people on how they could act to combat climate change.
He named groups like town planners, landowners and businesses: "With all these things it's about real people and their real lives, not scientific abstractions. We need to come down a level," he told DPA.
The headline is actual ragebait considering the more reasonable context of his message
One argument is we’re already there. We e already locked in 1.5° warming, even if it needs a few more years to manifest. We’ve missed the target. But we can’t afford to give up. We can still reduce the impact, the severity
1.5C was never a threat, it was a target. The IPCC produces simplified "stakeholder" report, it would be a superior use of one's time to just give it a skim than spend time reading clickbaity website titles. https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/
Policymaker summary report: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_SummaryForPolicymakers.pdf
If I may indulge myself one more edit (and then get back to work), why 1.5C is a natural question. As far as I recall it was the middle scenario for the end of the 21st century as calculated much earlier (easy to check if you go back to the early 2000s reports). We've since reached ~1C of warming. In the above summary, they state that the most realistic scenarios: (C7= 4 degrees by 2100), and C6 = 3 degrees by 2100), do not have peak warming by 2100. The reports never seem to stretch beyond 2100, and I wish they would to illustrate this point properly. My biggest fear (though not one I want my kids to have nightmares about) would be that warming continues towards 5C, which apart from everything else, brings the climate close to conditions experienced during the Permian-Triassic mass extinction:
I think the peak 4 degrees this century is extremely possible. A lot of the community studying this now thinks we have underestimated feedback loops, much of what is currently happening was not supposed to happen as quickly as it has.
I agree, our track record since the establishment of the IPCC has been only very slightly better than "business as usual" scenarios. The current decline of the AMOC current was not predicted to happen as quickly as it has, and the early 2000s IPCC reports didn't even factor in Greenland ice sheet meltwater. I'm not a climate scientist, I think if we have one or two in this community, their input would be fascinating.
well. 1.5C° maybe not an existential threat, but I don't see a single sign it would stop there, and not going further into 4.0C° ya know
I don't recall seeing anyone saying that 1.5 degrees warming was an existential threat to humanity. That said, its already killing some humans at less than 1.5 and that will only get worse
I get what you're saying and you're not wrong that it will definitely get worse, but I just want to caution that while more people may be dying from extreme heat, any figures to that end should be contrasted with the number of people dying from extreme cold.
Seems like everyone forgets that a nontrivial number of humans die from freezing to death every year... While it sucks that x% more are dying from heat, if more than x% fewer people are dying from the cold, then the point is moot. Though more people are dying from heat, fewer people are dying from environmental exposure throughout the year, and so, over all, the heat can be argued to be a good thing.
There was a prediction by a UN climate panel earlier this year thankfully that we would stay below 4 C.
His statement isn't really about the severity of the issue, he just says that people are prone to give up
The news;
- we are fucked
- just kidding no we are not
- yes we are
- no we are not
Don't even know what to believe anymore. All I know for fact is what I can see and trend myself. I know about 7 years ago or so I definitely noticed more wildfires than I ever have. Never had I had memories of every summer being smoked out. This summer I've felt autumn chill in some mornings when I normally would not have. Heat domes... Didn't even know why that was until last year or the year before.
I think shits fucked.
pretty sure we're fucked.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/30/world/antarctic-sea-ice-winter-record-low-climate-intl/index.html
when the AMOC goes, we're gonna see ecosystems collapse. When the ice shelf breaks off into the sea, we're gonna see sea levels climb rapidly.
can human civilization survive? perhaps if we can get everyone to work together. ww2 levels of mobilization and federalization of resources.
I think this would require the UN to have a no-bullshit-session with the worlds top climate and systems folks, then each and every country declaring a national emergency to address the climate crisis. Which means we're going to finally have to get the assholes rolling coal in their giant pickup trucks festooned with trump flags to give up their bullshit. And everyone will have to cut their energy consumption and face changes to their lives and diets that will help us prepare for the really hard times ahead and feed the starving that are already resulting from mass drought & the war in Ukraine.
I doubt we'll ever get the rolling coal big truck assholes to give up their bullshit, so... No, we're fucked, we're going to die badly in most cases, and it's almost entirely our own fault. I let the last few generations off because they didn't enjoy the excess, they're simply going to get stuck with the bill.
Cheers, hope I'm very very wrong.
...Changes which will never happen and will themselves cause untold suffering and millions of deaths, so no one will ever support them.
What we need is a method that would not negatively impact human standard of living. Human expansion into space would do it; we'll require the energy and resources up there to geoengineer in a non-stupid way and get the energy and resources to get off Exxon-Mobil's oily cock and undo ocean acidification anyway.
So let's do that instead. We can prevent the civil war that would erupt from climate austerity too.
IMO whether we're fucked or not is not a constructive argument.
In either case, the interpretation of climate change can lead to the same conclusion: a) we're fucked up to the point of no return. So we can keep our wasteful society as is until we extinct, because changing our society will not achieve anything. b) we're not in that bad situation so we can keep our wasteful society as is until the situation gets really bad and requires change.
Anything could be used to justify not making changes and majority of society/indistry ppl in power are super resistant to it (which likely reduces their profit).
In reality, it's not black and white. Even if the 'no return' scenario is real, we can still lessen the climate change effect or delay catastrophic end if we make changes now.
Climate change? Pfft. My fridge has been a steady 3°C for the past 10 years.
Most wildfires are caused by arsonists/accidents.
I'm not sure what kind of point you're trying to make here. Obviously every wildfire ultimately originates from an ignition source, be that a human made fire, some glass focusing the sunlight, a cigarette or whatever other source you can think of. They don't spawn into existence.
Drought caused by extreme heat makes it much easier for these small fires to spread into an actual wildfire though. It's not mutually exclusive.
Nuance, the world is filled with it. Who'd have thought?
We're definitely nowhere near "fuck it" levels, as the article says, we sure can make things a lot more awful if we decide now that we can't do anything about it anyway.
But maybe we need a stronger example than.. Bike lanes.. Though I get the point he's making.What is he waiting for, his feet to cook under the sun?
This is critical. We need to be careful, alert and active in mitigating climate change (and putting massive pressure on our governments to do the same) but we cannot give in to alarmism; all it’ll lead to is apathy, and a all that’ll lead to is inaction.
Climate change is real, it’s dangerous, and it’s happening. However, as long as we have commitment, it is not beyond our capabilities to mitigate. We still have time, and we can still fix this.
It is important to recall of IPCC's mission to be "policy neutral while being policy relevant and never policy prescriptive". They try their best to be scientifically accurate, discuss the state and suggest solutions. One can wonder why IPCC won't take sides and but that's the way it has always been. The burden of what to do with their message is always upon the commons.
This statement is on a similar vein. While it was possibly guided at consoling common people from climate grief, it has all the risks of being misquoted.
Absolutely. It's very easy to see the intentions behind the statement becoming warped. You can see it happening here
It’s like the world is desperate to recreate AppleTV+’s show Extrapolation, where companies just kept negotiating to raise the world temperature target cap. The red skies many people in the US were seeing were finally a wake up call to some.
He's not wrong. Groupthink elevates the most extreme rhetoric, and when people hear that, they disregard the totally valid argument as a whole.
If one person is saying "Hey, this could be bad for our coral reefs, polar bear populations, may cause more hurricanes over time, etc." they're going to be completely drowned out by the person saying "THIS IS THE END OF MODERN SOCIETY!" (paraphrased from an upvoted comment under this post)
No he is wrong and he is just mouthing the ipcc party line talking points. They’ve been doing this bs for a long time, demanding that climate scientists tone it down. And the reasoning is appallingly manipulative: if people understand how fucking bad it is going to get they will be paralyzed and ‘people’ won’t act. Meanwhile ‘people’ not acting is pretty much irrelevant when the global economic system itself is the direct cause of the problem, ‘people’ are just consuming commodities with abandon, as they have been trained, and as they must to keep the global economic system functioning.
I mean there was a direct scientific report that the UN released earlier this year which did say we aren't on the path to extinction -- but also that modest increases to temperature are more significant than we originally thought.
I think there's reason to believe we're not in the absolute worst case scenario, and regardless of however else the IPCC has been bearish, it's a good point that we should keep rhetoric in check. You can already see several people giving up and saying there's no point. Let scientists say for themselves what the data concludes, and leave it there.
I think we should take these people and (gently mind you) press their faces against the asphalt for 5 minutes. See if they still believe there's no extreme heat afterwards.
Hey there, casual violence. It's been a bit
Hey its not violent, 1.5c is nothing to be worried about so no ones going to get harmed in any way right?
"Don't worry. You aren't dying out, just risk the fall of civilization as we know it and then the rest of humanity can live in some post apocalyptic societies. All good!"
Everyone's already preparing to accept this new norm instead of actually doing something about it.
Old fuck who won't be around when shit hits the fan says we don't have serious problem.
aren't on track to an apocalyptic extinction,
things aren't perfectly fine. The world is becoming and will be more dangerous with respect to climate.
Those statements are contradictory.
These fucking jackasses are running our offices and industries. If something isn't done about this then it will kill ALL of us.
It's a 1.5C increase in a very, VERY short period. What happens if we get another 1.5C increase?
And another
And another
And another
You get the point.
Nuclear energy is the key to saving this planet. It would solve any energy problem we would have for hundreds if not thousands of years, and that's just uraniam. Don't even get me started on thorium, we would have energy for longer than we could ever comprehend. All readily available, yet we keep burning up dinosaur shit because "muh coal companiez!".
What happens when we run out of oil? You bastards are going to go out of business anyways, why not just INVEST IN NUCLEAR ENERGY?
Nuclear takes too long to build out and costs way more than renewables + storage. Why advocate for wasting money?
Because we waste money already?
We have an oversaturated military budget to obtain oil from third world countries, we could start there?
How about we stop giving debt to China? We owe them $37 trillion already, there isn't even that many USD on the planet lol.
The government doesn't "waste money" because money means nothing to the government, money is a tool used by the government to get the people to do things the government wants. They can and will print money as needed, which doesn't decrease the value of the USD as FIAT's value is determined by a countries power in terms of trade, politics, and military strength.
What an absolute dogshit headline - this old white man certainly needs to better at avoiding giving clippable highlights but the journalist absolutely knows what they are doing.
Finally some levelheadedness. Wholeheartedly agree. There is much to be done. But elements of the movement have ecome somewhat cultlike unfortunately.