Will drones make tanks obsolete?
Will drones make tanks obsolete?
Some say that tanks are obsolete in modern battlefield. One example is a recent total destruction of Leopard tanks in Ukraine by Russian Lancet drones. On the other hand, it may be just because Leopards were not prepared for such a kind of weapon, and tank designs will adapt for the use of drones. I hope tanks will survive of course :) What do you think?
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Do bullets make infantry obsolete? Humans die really quickly to bullets and the cost relation is horrible
Tanks might become obsolete, in fact NATO has been developing the concept of Strike/Stryker brigades as their main meat for a long time and those function mostly without MBTs as their primary armor. If they become obsolete it won't simply be because of drones, but because their tactical role will be filled by other systems or concepts.
Heavy armor in large columns has a big problem in modern peer conflicts in general. Minefields and high precision weapons combined with constant satelite and UAV surveillance make them incredibly vulnerable. Both Ukraine and Russia have struggled massively with this. Both have resorted to small scale infantry teams to circumvent this problem. Cluster munitions should, however, make this manpower intensive strategy even more costly and difficult. So that doesn't seem to be a good solution either in an age where manpower is sparse as hell due to demographic shifts.
The tank's role in this seems to have shifted too tho. From what we can see they're less effective as breakthrough weapons and more as short-range, direct fire, mobile artillery. In times of immense focus on artillery that still gives them a highly important role that drones don't really impact any more than they do howitzers, SPGs or AD for that matter.
Personally I think long term drones will mostly impact the role of the airforce. Planes are absurdly expensive to build ($80mio for a single F35, bombers can cost close to a billion), operate and maintain, so are pilots. Much more so than tanks and their crews. Missiles, drones and integrated AD, to me, seem much more economical than huge fleets of jets and bombers operated by incredibly vulnerable human meat while filling similar tactical roles. We can see this in Ukraine where air power plays a pretty small role, while tanks are still all present and sought after.
NATO has been developing the concept of Strike/Stryker brigades as their main meat for a long time
And how is that working out?
From what we can see they’re less effective as breakthrough weapons and more as short-range, direct fire, mobile artillery
Preeeetty sure they've stopped being the main breakthrough force since WW1. Cracking enemy defenses is artillery's job. Tanks are cavalry - exploiting the breach to speed towards the soft stuff at the rear. Fuel storages, depots, the works.
If anything, Ukraine war and the aforementioned extensive usage of drones just goes to show that artillery is still king.
And how is that working out?
Haven't really seen it yet, have we? It's a fairly new concept and countries like the UK struggle with even procuring the vehicles necessary. The UAF got enough for like half a brigade, but interestingly afaik no Strykers have yet appeared anywhere on the fronts. In general I'd imagine they'd work out about as well as the current Ukrainian forces since they're predicated on air and artillery supperiority and space to maneuver. Bashing them against fortified positions isn't the point from what I understand. Which just makes the "NATO would beat Russia ezpz" fantasy even more laughable since NATOs state of the art structure isn't at all suited to conventional peer warfare.
Preeeetty sure they’ve stopped being the main breakthrough force since WW1.
Sure, combined arms yadda yadda. They were still a breakthrough weapon and still are used as such. They just don't seem to work that well in this role anymore.
If anything, Ukraine war and the aforementioned extensive usage of drones just goes to show that artillery is still king.
Definitely. Very long range fire capabilities dominate this war, but surprisingly infantry remains incredibly important at the same time.
Thank you for an elaborate answer. Could you explain what are SPGs and AD? I am not too literate in modern military equipment.
SPGs = Self-propelled guns
Big wheeled or tracked artillery guns. Eg French Caesar, German PzH2000, Russian Msta-S, etc
AD is just Air Defence. Million systems for different roles and ranges on the battlefield in Ukraine right now.