How to figure out why BTRFS drive reports it is out of space

# sudo btrfs fi df /mnt/disk3
Data, single: total=12.70TiB, used=12.27TiB
System, DUP: total=8.00MiB, used=1.34MiB
Metadata, DUP: total=15.00GiB, used=14.50GiB
GlobalReserve, single: total=512.00MiB, used=608.00KiB

# mkdir /mnt/disk3/tst
mkdir: cannot create directory ‘tst’: No space left on device

I suspect this is BTRFS balancing issue, but even BTRFS's own utility is indicating there's still SOME space left. Certainly should be enough to create a directory.

Any ideas?

Just in general BTRFS default options for creating new volumes seem to not work well for disks that I intend to fill completely immediately after formatting. Are there better options for this use case? I just use

# mkfs.btrfs /dev/sdd1