It's going to be an uphill battle and maybe even a siege. It's going to mean these sub-reddits are going to have to be dark for the foreseeable future if they want to make it painful for Spez and team.
I have officially migrated here from reddit, after nearly 15 years over there. This is my 1st comment and the 1st post I've viewed.
For me, it's irrelevant whether or not my decision makes a discernable impact; I simply won't support them with my traffic and won't settle for the default app. No 3rd party apps simply equates to no reddit for me.
And even if they walked back their decision regarding their API, I still wouldn't return unless there was a change in management.
I don't think reddit will walk back their decision, and I don't think they'll be going anywhere either. But I think this is a tipping point in reddit's quality as a site/community. Analogously to russia's brain drain, I believe we will see that the core of the redditors who are leaving are made up of redditors who promote a healthy functioning site/communities.
I was a very core member of several subreddits and did some moderation, but also contributed to reporting content, etc. that most users neglect, but are integral to limiting spam, trolls, and hate. It's not the users shitposting on r/funny or r/gaming that are going to leave. It's the long-time users who have been propping up this paper tiger.
If enough mods and healthy community members leave, reddit is going to devolve into a cesspool. Reddit will be hard off if they lose the free labor of mods that have propped up their site for years.
Trying this out for the first time, Its honestly really similar. No Apollo app means no reddit for me, unfortunately. If Lemmy can make a good mobile app and the community grows a bit I could see being a semi-daily user here.
I've liked my experience on Jerboa for Lemmy. It looks great and feels streamlined in list view with the font size I've chosen. That's android, but there's also an ios app for lemmy.
It will be more like a downhill slide for them. Without third party apps how are mods going to moderate? There will be so much more spam, trolls, and scams, the already tenuous experience will become even worse.
If they stick with these changes they're already dead, they're just living on borrowed time.