Each state based on early voting/mail in results(assuming minimal party defecting and dead even independents)

Iowa has been leading blue in this for a few days which is either good or bad news depending on your POV. Good news is it suggests the Selzer Poll isn't a freak WI+17 event and is genuine. Iowa might be competitive, very competitive. In fact it's closer than the Rust Belt swing states and most of the sunbelt outside of maybe NC.

The bad news is suggests that this isn't exactly a nationwide trend(there's a ton of specific Iowa factors, Tim Walz, Abortion Laws there being the worst in the nation, nobody really paying them much attention since Texas and Florida and Ohio and Alaska were supposed to be the grabbale ones and got lot's of counter investment), and if you read this data with the assumption it's very slightly blue skewed and in-person is very slightly red skewed(which is seemingly the case this year) New Hampshire would have a better chance of going red than fucking Pennsylvania.

Imagine the 270-268 scenario except Trump were to win because he picked up New Hampshire and held Iowa by the skin of his teeth even with bad losses in the rust belt. That's a plausible option now.