NZ NPC Round 8

Table:

Pos.	Team	P	W	B	PTS
1	Wellington	8	7	7	35
2	Tasman	7	7	4	32
3	Taranaki	8	6	6	30
4	BoP	8	5	8	28
5	Hawke's Bay	8	5	7	27
6	Canterbury	8	5	5	25
7	Waikato	8	4	7	23
8	Counties-Manukau	8	3	6	18
9	North Harbour	8	2	10	18
10	Auckland	7	3	5	17
11	Otago	8	3	4	16
12	Northland	8	2	5	13
13	Southland	8	2	4	12
14	Manawatū	8	1	3	7

Fixtures: 27/09:

• Counties-Manukau v Wellington

28/09:

• BoP v Northland
• Hawke's Bay v Auckland
• Otago v Tasman

29/09:

• North Harbour v Canterbury
• Southland v Waikato
• Taranaki v Manawatū

2/10:

• Tasman v Auckland

Predictions:

• Wellington 15+
• BoP 21+
• Hawke's Bay 1-¹
• Tasman 12+
• North Harbour 6-
• Waikato 12+
• Taranaki 50+

1 - I don't know if Folau Fakatava is back from injury yet or not; he's been out the last two games and without him as a 2nd playmaker my Magpies have been dreadful. No ability to relieve pressure means two massive hidings in a row. This is a prediction from the heart, not the head :)

Notes:

Its now the second to last round, and mathematically probably only Manawatū are definitively outside of the top 8, but I think we can assume that Northland and Southland are also no chance given at best they can only be expecting to win 1/2.

Otago are also only likely to win 1 more match so there's the 4 wooden spooners confirmed and we only need to pick two more teams to stay or slip out of the top 8.

Auckland have had a terrible season, but have 3 games in hand, so could pick up another 15 points, except they are playing Hawke's Bay, Tasman & BoP so are only likely to win 1, they should finish somewhere around 24 points.

North Harbour could beat Canterbury, and should beat Southland so are potentially looking at a points upside of 6-10 points, but Counties-Manukau have a guaranteed win against Manawatū so for Harbour to make it they really need to push for a win against the Rams.

Waikato should pick up another 4-5 points against Southland, even if they lose to Canterbury the following week so are probably safe.

So, weirdly the two other teams that are at some risk are Hawke's Bay & Canterbury, purely because neither of their next two games are guaranteed wins. The Rams are probably more likely to get a win given the Magpies woeful form since losing the Shield, but i'd say both of them are likely safe - even if the 'pies get the job done with bonus points rather than wins.

As for the top of the table, well with a game in hand, the high spending Tasman Makos are most likely to take 1st place again, followed by Wellington. Taranaki & BoP will both get wins this round, so if Auckland continue to suck and Tasman continue to be good, BoP will secure 3rd in the final game of the round-robin ahead of the playoffs.