'Ineffective, expensive, inequitable' - expert on Nats' crime policy
'Ineffective, expensive, inequitable' - expert on Nats' crime policy
AUT law dean and parole board member Khylee Quince said National's announcement "is fear-mongering".
"AUT law dean and parole board member Khylee Quince said National was proposing 'retrograde' steps."
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Conservatives always look back to a fictional past where everything was better.
This is no different.
But we should always strive to be better.
Is the current path we’re on resulting in a better outcome for society as a whole?
Without any changes do we see crime going down?
From the article:
She was on board with increasing access to rehabilitation, but stressed it doesn't need to happen in prison.
Studies have shown that jail time does not reduce a criminal’s future risk of crime and may slightly increase it. Meanwhile, rehabilitation inside or outside of prison has been shown to reduce the risk of future crime by 29 percent.
Crime rates in NZ have been steadily decreasing for years. It seems to me by increasing access to rehab we will continue to see better outcomes for society as a whole.
That’s probably true on just jail time but we can say that in the case of Singapore, severely punishing crime does have a big affect on decreasing crime.
Read the article. Crime has been going down steadily for 20 years. The media's awfully good at stirring up fear by concentrating on specific subsections of crime that are rising amidst an overall downward trend. They've been doing this for decades, and a very large chunk of the population swallow that narrative hook, line and sinker. People will actually say things like "you can tell crime is increasing" without considering how they came to that conclusion, or that the evidence shows the opposite.
So that's the path we're on - one towards lower crime, and a better outcome for everyone. But no one is proposing that we do nothing to make things better still. It's just a case of where we put that attention. Don't we want to spend our money and effort on solutions that actually work?
There are experts who have done huge amounts of research into works and what doesn't, like the academic in that story. And yet you still find people who think they know better because "criminals can't commit crimes if they're in jail", as if that was something experts hadn't considered. I'm always surprised how many people think the first solution they can think of will be better than the findings of an expert after decades of research and consideration.
Can you source the statistics that crime has been going down for the past 20 years?
I found this article which sources police data saying that in the past 6 years crime has gone up significantly.
That article is a fantastic example of what I was saying:
The media’s awfully good at stirring up fear by concentrating on specific subsections of crime that are rising amidst an overall downward trend.
And look at what the article says:
Between 2017 and 2022, the number of serious assault reports increased by 121%, while reports of acts intended to cause injury went up by almost 30%.
They cherry-picked some subsection of crime and time-frame to present an impression that crime is going up, whilst conveniently saying nothing about the overall rate of serious crime.
You won't find decent statistics in the media. The long-term gradual reduction in crime rates does not fuel fear and drive clicks, so it's rarely reported on. There's enormous amounts of academic literature, but if you want a quick rundown, look at the Crime Rates section of this page.
Besides, going looking for statistics can give you false conclusions. Interpretation is complicated, and needs to be viewed in the context of things like changes in reporting and categorisation of crimes over time. For example, the article you linked to mentions that the reporting of retail crime went up significantly once the police released an app that makes it much easier to report low-level offences. That's likely where that bump came from.
In view of the complexity, it's much easier to look to experts in the field, rather than attempting to do their job better than them. I've read and heard enough from experts to know that the gradual reduction in crime since the 90s is a well-known phenomenon, and is happening in many developed countries. I'd never be able to remember their names, but there's one in that article I linked.
As the population goes up you should expect crime to go up in proportion. If the crime stays the same it's a win, if it goes up slower than the population growth it's a win.
In any case you can't just blindly change things and hope, all changes need to be carefully considered and studied. National isn't doing that. They are just doing the same shit hoping for a different outcome.