2024: The Year Linux Dethrones Windows on the Desktop – Are You Ready?
2024: The Year Linux Dethrones Windows on the Desktop – Are You Ready?
- NTSync coming in Kernel 6.11 for better Wine/Proton game performance and porting.
- Wine-Wayland last 4/5 parts left to be merged before end of 2024
- Wayland HDR/Game color protocol will be finished before end of 2024
- Nvidia 555/560 will be out for a perfect no stutter Nvidia performance
- KDE/Gnome reaching stability and usability with NO FKN ADS
- VR being usable
- More Wine development and more Games being ported
- Better LibreOffice/Word compatibility
- Windows 10 coming to EOL
- Improved Linux simplicity and support
- Web-native apps (Including Msft Office and Adobe)
- .Net cross platform (in VSCode or Jetbrains Rider)
What else am I missing?
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No. Nobody cares, no matter what MS does. They can literally crap on users faces and they’ll happily lick it as long is Windows is the supported platform. And it will stay like that for decades to come.
We can expect some growth, because the tech savvy PC enthusiasts might want to look for alternatives, and if the desktop Linux is good enough, some will stick to it, some will go back, as it was always for last 30 years.
Yeah it's tough to expect general users to switch. I would just like linux to go over 5% threshold so that companies seriously consider it.
I was a Windows user up until a couple of years ago when I switched to Kubuntu and never looked back. I think after Windows 10 is gone, there will be a big uptick in Linux.
People said that about Windows 7 EoL too, which was much more of a paradigm shift. Absolutely nothing happened. The dial for "market share" barely moved, let alone Linux increasing substantially.
Just not gonna happen. I really wish it would, but it's just wishful thinking. Most people either don't care (they just "use a PC") or wouldn't know how to switch anyway.
Comparing the era of Win 7 EoL with the current one isn't apples to apples. For one, there actually was a slight increase in Linux marketshare. Second, enshittification has entirely taken over (made even worse by AI), and that wasn't thing until a few years into Windows 10. Will it be The Year Of The Linux Desktop? Absolutely not, but there will be an uptick in Linux usage. The real delusion is saying there won't be. Who knows how long it'll last? But we've already seen more and more people get Linux curious thanks to Microsoft's continued blunders and things like the Steam Deck.
You clearly misunderstood my post. Never said it was apples to apples, quite the opposite. I said the change from 7 to 10 was much bigger (and yes, we're ignoring Win 8 completely).
And of course will there be an uptick in Linux usage, he says it would be a "big" one, to which I objected to. Linux desktop has been trending up for a while, and while there might be a slight additional bump, I highly doubt it will be far beyond the margin of error for that general positive trend.
I also said it "barely" moved (it being the market share), which implies it did move, just not a lot.
More to the expected magnitude of the 10 EoL date pushing people to Linux, it won't be anywhere near what valve accomplished with the steam deck. Why? Because people buy a gaming console, they can play games on. Most don't care that it's Linux, it's just a tool/toy. It happens to be Linux underneath. On their PC they actively have to change it themselves. If people bought a PC that had Linux on it, they probably wouldn't overly notice or care either, but they just can't. Overwhelmingly they just come with windows, it you want it or not (usually there is no option to not buy that license).
Edit: what is harder to predict (or guess) is the indirect influence of valves accomplishment. Now that gaming on Linux it's actually viable, this might actually open the door for more people to give it a go. But as per usual with these things, it's probably less people who actually do it than one would intuitively expect or hope.
Edit 2: changed Vista to Win8
I said the change from 7 to 10 was much bigger (and yes, we're ignoring vista completely).
Do you mean Windows 8/8.1 instead of Vista, as 8 was between 7 and 10?
Ah yes of course, edited. Both are the unwanted stepchildren, so it's hard to keep em straight when you don't care about em...
I think it's a little more complex today than it was in the days of Win7.
First, the performance/compatibility gap is much smaller than it used to be. Ie, back in those days, Wine was much more of a crapshoot. Now, compatibility is a lot better, and there are a number of straightforward troubleshooting tools like Winetricks. Proton is also huge, being an in-built feature in the largest gaming platform on PC.
Second, the Steamdeck has exposed numerous more casual PC gamers to Linux than probably there ever has been in the past. Granted, the PC handheld market isn't massive, but it's also not small. People want to play AAA pc games in the form factor of a Switch, and it just so happens that the most popular, well polished and best supported product in that market ships with Linux.
Third, todays focus on privacy and freedom is much more of a hot button issue than it was back in the day. I'm not at all trying to imply that there weren't priviacy concious folk back then, but face it, in 2011, your car didn't track your location and sell that data to marketing companies. Your phone didn't capture your fingerprints, and your operating system didn't track your online shopping habbits and show you ads in the start menu, or take constant screen-captures of your work at all times. People are more concious of their privacy now than they ever were (even people who aren't super into tech are at the very least familiar with ad blockers and VPNs). I genuinely believe this will be one of the bigger factors if there is an uptick. People will learn about this alternative OS with no ads, no trackers, plus it's free, and that will at least get them curious. You're right, some will try but abandon it, some won't care at all, but I think the number of people who just want out of what MS is locking them into is growing.