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How one poll is shaking up the race

It looks like not yet

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The prediction market platform Kalshi announced on their company Discord serve (which is open to the public) that they’ve won their lawsuit against the CFTC, which had previously banned them from operating prediction markets on US election.

Surely you wouldn't make up an opinion?

Let's face it - one of the biggest excuses risk managers use to avoid quantitative analysis is the paralysis that comes from choosing the "right" probability distribution. The selection options in ModelRisk can make your head spin: Overwhelming, right? And that's just one tool. The @RISK plugin also...

<p>This statistics publication provides forecasts for higher education and further education student loans in England. These include forecasts of student numbers, student loan outlay and student loan repayments. Only income-contingent student loans issued to students through Student Finance England ...

Swift Centre’s forecasters provide their predictions for Thursday’s general election

The ins and outs of how we forecast the election

Superforecaster, GJ managing director, and leader of Good Judgment’s question team, Ryan Adler shares tips on how to approach forecasting Supreme Court decisions.

Creators earn $10k, how the program was created, and what's next

Higher-order forecasting could be a useful concept for prediction markets and forecasting systems more broadly. The core idea is straightforward: Nth-order forecasts are forecasts about (N-1)th order forecasts. Examples Here are some examples: 0-Order Forecasting (i.e., the ground truth) * Bi...

Prediction markets are legal, contrary to popular belief. But they remain unpopular, because they lack key features that make markets attractive.

The series B funding round comes during a breakout year for the crypto-based prediction market platform, and brings its total funding well over $70 million.

Manifold pivot || Lab leak hindcasting || CFTC extra-double-bans prediction markets

The ban would greatly slow, but not end, global progress on prediction markets

These are the weekly minutes for Alert’s foresight team, which seeks to identify and quantify possibly upcoming catastrophes.

I am sad to report that forecasting hasn't taken over the world yet.

A new tool that blends your everyday work apps into one. It's the all-in-one workspace for you and your team

Superforecaster Elan Pavlov is a polymath. With a PhD in theoretical computer science and a postdoc in behavioral economics from MIT, he has “dabbled,” as he describes it, in many areas: mathematics and computational biology, machine learning, AI, and algorithms, law and even work on fish farms. “I ...

Prediction markets say former President Donald J. Trump has a good chance of winning. So far, the stock market is fine with that.

New mathematical modeling of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning – a system of ocean currents – shows greater complexity than previously thought. An international team of scientists has warned against relying on nature providing straightforward ‘early warning’ indicators of a climate disaster, as n

What to expect in AI capabilities, potential harms, and society's response

Science funding agencies are biased against risk, making transformative research difficult to fund. Forecast-based approaches to grantmaking could improve funding outcomes for high-risk, high-reward research.

China and India, the world’s largest coal consumers, will consume much more coal than energy analysts predict